I don't like this kind of feeling. I am confused listening to four different authoritative voices. I sense both an approaching danger and an opportunity. March 11 is the day. I need to cool down and gather my thoughts.
The four guys that confuse me are Martin Armstrong, Sol Padha, Adam Hamilton and Michael J. Ballanger. I don't know which one to believe. All of them were bullish on gold, but they differ when it comes to timing and their views on equity market.
Martin Armstrong wrote last 11 February that markets' correction was fast approaching. He saw 2017 as the beginning of the end in the so-called "confidence game." As for gold, though he is bullish, he remains cautious. He wants to see the 1362 level broken to join the camp of those who have been claiming for a trend reversal. Nevertheless, he is still expecting for a price below 1000 USD.
As for Sol Padha, though he is also long-term bullish on gold, but at the moment he refuses to join those who forecast for market correction. He understands that fundamentals in the current manipulated market no longer applies. The Fed in particular is forcing everyone to speculate. Though he affirms elsewhere in his other articles that the end of this is a big USD devaluation, but contrary to the message of doom prophets, such anticipation will still take a long way into the future. For now, he is expecting that with the power of the Fed, the three primary US stock indices will soon start "another monstrous rally."
Adam Hamilton is the third voice. In his 5 February article, he anticipated that as a result of the rising price of gold, gold stocks would be the 2016 best performing sector. And then just yesterday he wrote that investors should carefully watch GLD for this gold ETF provides the signal for the direction of capital flow from stock market into and out of gold. And based on his observation, investors have already "aggressively taken the gold-buying baton from speculators. . ." and concluded that "a new bull market in gold has been born!"
And finally, we come to Michael J. Ballanger. I first encountered this guy through this report. In it, he presented both the long-term opportunity and the short-term threat to the gold market. It is him who alarmed me that March 11 would be the turning point in the gold market. I sensed that he doesn't like the change in sentiment given to gold by those who formerly ridiculed this market. He interpreted this as a warning that something hostile would be unleashed. This is how he described such threat in the above report:
I am delighted to report that the long-term and intermediate-term status of the gold market and its associated gold miners is unequivocally BULLISH with every indicator I have used since the late 1970s kicking into gear. That's the good news. The bad news is that in the short term, I see an ever-increasing probability for a seriously sharp correction and one that will ignite all of the recent memories of what just happened back in the 2011-2015 bear market.
Of course, he might be wrong as all analysts do. . .
