Sunday, August 26, 2018

$PHES

I am now about to complete 6 chapters of Minervini's book, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Superperformance in Stocks in Any Market. I started with Chapter 1 and as suggested I read next Chapters 12 & 13 on risk management, and then continued with Chapters 2 & 3, skipped Chapter 4, and jumped to Chapter 5 about treating the trend as your friend.

My reading exposed my mistake in trading, the fruitlesness, frustration, and waste of time in bottom fishing. I am not sure where did I learn this strategy of picking up hard-beaten stocks thinking that they are in bargain sales. After losing 50% of my total port value, the price I paid as a neophyte in this field, I started to become defensive and extra-cautious leading me to decide not to chase after soaring stocks, but to hunt for bargain stocks. Later, I learned that traders call it "bottom fishing." I feel comfortable in using this strategy, betting on reversals and thinking that the risk is low for the stock has already been beaten down for quite some time. This strategy worked for me in few stocks, but my portfolio simply shifted from suffering huge loss to either a static one or receiving a minimal gain. Somehow, this leads me to think if trading is really worth my time. Thanks to one trader in investagrams.com who referred to me Minervini's book. My reading leads me to check the chart patterns of stocks in PSE. Nine of them got my attention, but it was $PHES that caught my attention the most.

During the past four trading days, $PHES' price has been appreciating with above average volumes. And then I asked myself, "Is this stock still in the early phase of stage 2, which Minervini calls the advancing or accumulation stage?" I checked the stock and read its 2017 Annual Report. Since I am not familiar with this stock, though I find many interesting fundamentals, still I can't avoid being suspicious about its current price hike. Anyway, I realized that 2017 was a turn-around year in terms of both sales and income. Sales increased 5.3x and net income more than 10 times. Its EPS grew from 0.001 in 2016 to 0.013 in 2017.

4Q2018 will contribute big to the financial standing of the company for $PHES expects the launching of Wellford Residences in Mactan, a two-tower condominium with 205 units. The company expects to generate a 300M revenue.

For now, there is no question for me that $PHES is a right buy. The remaining two questions I have to answer is when to buy and when to sell?




Friday, August 24, 2018

MACD's Fans

For MACD's fans, $FNI flashes a "buy signal" last 22 August. The stock is still in a downtrend. It is uncertain if its base formation is already complete. Price is already tight, but it is still good to observe and wait for sellers' exhaustion. Remember that the price of nickel in world market is still down and the mining sector in Philipine stock market is also unpopular. Those who bet for a bottom and a potential trend reversal could closely watch this stock before entering. As for me, once the stock returns and closes below 1.98, I will take that as a signal that I am wrong and will exit immediately.