Trading Notes 22 April 2017

Wait for the trend to change before trading $APX, $CAL, and $DNA . . .

It is not their time yet . . .

Look for other stocks to trade . . .

Check $PX $COL and $CHP . . .

I think their trend has just recently reversed. . .

Both $PX and $COL are now resuming their uptrend. . .

$CHP's rally last 5 and 6 April has just been confirmed on 17 April . . .

$CHP's trend has now reversed . . .

$XAUUSD

Simply amazed!

As I observe how my experiment with EWP unfolds the accuracy of wave counts before my eyes. . .

Am I dreaming?

Is it a product of a biased mind?

Or is it purely mathematics?

Or as one Elliott analyst would ask, "Is this really the reflection of psychological DNA of those who trade $XAUUSD?

Now, $XAUUSD is heading towards Wave 3 of 3rd degree. . .

1st degree of waves are coded in blue . . .

2nd degree is in red . . .

The 3rd degree is in gold. . .

If this analysis is correct, $XAUUSD is now forming Waves 3 - 4 - B

The low of Wave 4 - C might revisit the 1260 + area but not to the point of touching 1261 again. . .

That's the best time to take position in $XAUUSD . . .

That's a big wow!!!

$PX

Both Waves 1 and 2 of a higher degree are done . . .


The stock is now forming Wave 3 . . .


Waves 1 and 2 of a lower degree within Wave 3 are already completed. . .


$PX next destination is Wave 3 - 3 . . .

$CAL

Don't be in a hurry. . .

The stock is still in a downtrend. . .

Avoid speculating about the company's past as the cause of its decline . . .

Or any price manipulation on the part of insiders. . .

Don't argue with the tape. . .

It doesn't help. . .

It makes you a loser. . .

Simply study the chart carefully. . .

And follow its lead . . .

$APX

Monthly Chart

Daily Chart

$COL

9 months of consolidation. . . I think around 174 days. . . The normal is 40 days. . .

Is $COL ready to soar to 18.00 + ?

$XAUUSD

$STI

$STI caught my attention from Finance Manila. Just posting it here for future reference. In case I will have position in this stock, I will consider its fib retracement as my entry point:

50% - 0.90

61.8% - 0.82

$CAL

Not so fast . . .


Wait until the trend is done . . .


The channel is still pointing down . . .

Trading Notes 2 : $WLCON $CHP $APX $CAL $DNA $PX

1. $WLCON

The chart is still neutral though Deutsche and CLSA showed strength today for $WLCON to finish @ 5.23.

2. $CHP

Still have 3 more trading days to confirm whether the 5-6 April rally is for real. The volume doesn't look good and so are the lower low and lower high.

3. $APX

I consider it a good indicator to see First Metro as the only strong buyer today. It was a seller last 7 April @ 1.50 but a buyer now @ 1.54.

ABCap is still selling @ 1.53 but with a lower volume from a net amount of 1.3M down to 805k.

As a seller, COL is an unreliable indicator. Quality is a solid buyer @ 1.54 with 154k net amount.

Generally, the stock is still in the woods, rising but with lower volume. If volume will increase the next trading day, knowing the behavior of the stock, it is better to sell it the following day.

4. $CAL

Likewise, COL as a buyer is a weak indicator. Strategic is a stronger seller today than last 7 April. Not a good sign.

5. $DNA

BPI sold strong @ 6.49 with 1M net amount. Also not a good sign. Dragonfly doji is bullish but lower low/high is bearish.

6. $PX

BaSec is the only good indicator. Higher low/high but low volume. Candlestick is hanging man. Ideally, the price of gold tonight will dictate the price of gold stocks tomorrow, but for the past few weeks, this has not been true in the case of gold stocks @ PSE. 

Trading Notes : $CHP $APX $CAL $DNA

1. $CHP

Holders capitulated and this is particularly obvious in COL's case, which has been a buyer from 13 Feb to 10 March @ a price range between 8.42 to 9.60. However, beginning 13 March, up to 7 April, COL became a seller @ a price range between 7.21 to 7.81.

The graph I made shows that for the last 3 weeks the trend has been buying high and selling low. This is a sign of capitulation. Interestingly, the trend this last week seems to turn upward. I still 4 more trading days to confirm if this shift is real. That will be on 17 April.

2. $APX

UNICAP is already in the buy side. Only ABCAP and SB EQ remain the strong sellers. ABCAP is weakening while SB EQ is selling down the stock. See SB EQ's trading record:

29 March - 8.2Msh @ 1.46

31 March - 1.4Msh @ 1.45

6 April - 4.2Msh @ 1.41

7 April - 1.9Msh @ 1.47


3. $CAL

a. Still in a downtrend. Capitulation is evident. Typical example is First Metro, a buyer between 2.09 to 2.36 but became a seller @ 2.06.

b. COL's buying enthusiasm too is diminishing. Once COL turned seller, I see it as a good sign of capitulation and an approaching trend reversal.

c. 3 to 7 April - The 4 biggest sellers were missing in action: Strategic, Unicap, Coyiuto, and IGC.

d. Signals to wait: end of Wave 3, volume dry up and price tightening, COL on the selling side, the 4 sellers on the buy side, and bigger volume but price stops to drop.

e. Solid Buyers: Triton @ 2.38, Aurora @ 2.47, BDO @ 2.49, Alpha @ 2.30, Ansaldo @ 2.39, Jaka @ 2.20, and E Chua @ 2.12

f. Solid Sellers: Strategic between 2.22 to 2.41 and IGC between 2.26 to 2.35

4. $DNA

a. There was a capitulation between 27 Feb to 3 March.

b. The whole of March is insignificant due to low volume.

c. First week of April shows new players, BPI and UniCap, with higher volume but lower price. The strength of both buyers and sellers appears even.

d. I still have to wait for the disclosure of FOO price.