"Susunod na to sa $TUGS sa 7.50..."
"Sa Monday maglalagablab na to..."
And you can read many other similar messages anticipating $CAL to soar as a result of a disclosure and a press release...
Others issued a warning:
"Marami talagang hindi natuto sa hudas na to!"
"Pag pumasok ka kay $CAL, huwag mong iiwan. Bantayan mo dahil baka pagbalik mo pula na port mo. Isang paalala mula sa ex-$CAL victim."
Despite its huge price decline for the past few months and due to a recent one-day rise, the dominant sentiment for this stock is bullish.
So it appears that all the stars are aligning for this stock...technical analysis, SWAG in particular; disclosure; and press release...
As for me, at first I do not doubt that the chart is bullish. In fact, I saw the stock already completed the bullish ending diagonal pattern. However, whenever I hear a stock getting so much attention, I get suspicious...
Nevertheless, only a chart can temper my suspicion. I revised my previous charts and this one somehow satisfies me except for the 5 sub-waves of Wave B.
At first, I want to make a chart that confirms my bias that the current rise of $CAL is a Wave A rally and I have to wait for the completion of Wave B before re-entering. To my surprise, as I carefully follow the rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Principle, I realized that both Waves A and B were already finished and $CAL now is advancing its Wave C rally. In fact, Wave A was completed middle of September and October last year. And the low of Wave B has already been established at 2.25.
To appreciate the above chart, you need to see its longer time frame:
In the above chart, you can see $CAL completed the 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal pattern with a "throw-over" wave 5. After finishing the pattern, the corrective waves that follow are confusing particularly when it comes to Wave B for it has 5 sub-waves instead of 3. It is at this point that I changed my mind and turned bearish on this stock. As EWP reminds us that such kind of Wave B could be a resumption of Wave 1 of higher degree. And since $CAL is in a long-term downtrend, this could mean a continuation of downtrend. If this is the case, the rally that is now going on is actually Wave 2, an upward correction, which I anticipate will have 3 sub-waves. Having said this does not mean that I will close my mind to the possibility that $CAL's current rally is really a legitimate bullish one. I still need to wait for the waves to unfold until the time I can clearly recognize its primary trend. And then that's the time for me to take a position in this stock. For now, I just want to congratulate those who bought at 2.25 and are now enjoying their gains.
