Ang $CALbaryo ni $CALbo

Ito pa yong isang stock na tiyak marami ang dumadaan sa CALbaryo at malapit ng maCALbo...

Imagine sa kabila ng mga positive press releases, ang stock na ito ay patuloy sa pagbulusok...

Sa takot na maubos ang kanilang buhok, maraming mga traders iniwan na ang stock na to...

Ang sabi ng marami pag nabutas ang 2.60 "Goodbye na! Ayokong tuluyang maCALbo!"

Pero yong iba talagang mapilit. Maghihintay daw sila ng "higher low" at "higher high" bago muling pumasok...

Sa palagay niyo kaya hindi yan alam ng mga "operators"?

These operators have bigger guns...

Anong tsansa mo na manalo?

Ang ipinagtataka ko sa stock na ito ay bakit pinagkakaguluhan gayong "downtrend" pa rin naman.

Isang batas ng mga traders na madalas kong naririnig ay bawal bumili sa isang stock na patuloy ang pagbaba. Maghintay daw ng reversal bago bumili...

Ewan ko kung sino gumawa ng batas na yan...

Balik tayo sa tanong about chances of winning against the operators...

Kung pondo ang pag-uusapan, walang laban ang mga small time retailers...

Pero kung chart at tibay ng sikmura, diyan may laban tayo...

At kailangan marunong ka maupo...

Basta ang alam ko sa kabila ng "madilim" na kahapon, isa si CALbo sa mga stocks na paborito ko...

Dito ako unang nalugi...at dito rin ako natuto...

Simula noon, aba! parang ATM ko na itong si $CAL...

Yon nga lang, ibang klaseng ATM kasi kinakailangan mong maghintay ng ilang buwan bago lumabas ang pera...

Ok balik tayo sa charts...

Tatlong charts ang pinagbabasehan ko sa laban na to...

Chart #1

Long-term ang time frame ng chart na to...

Mapapansin ninyo sa bandang kaliwa may 2 waves na magkamukha...

Hindi ko alam kung ang tawag diyan sa EWT...

I simply ignore the first wave and did a recounting...

The good thing with this chart is that it gives you support and resistance at 2.50 and 4.00 respectively. So kung long-term trader ka, let's say 3 to 4 months, you can buy this stock @ 2.50 and sell @ 4.00. Siempre kung nainip ka, pwede mo namang ibenta below 4.00...

The problem with this chart is that it does not provide you the clear direction of the stock. We don't know whether the downtrend is resuming or the trend is reversing. In short, neutral ang chart na to.

Chart # 2

This chart is the most negative...

CAL has just finished with its corrective waves and has resumed downtrend. It is now finished both with Waves 1 and 2 and is now forming Wave 3. If this interpretation is correct, then potential turning point is @ 1.80.

And so if you are a current holder of this stock and using this chart as your guide, you can either endure the pain of seeing your paper loss or cut your loss as early as possible and plan your re-entry near that price.

Chart # 3

This is the chart I like the most...

It gives you the big picture and multiple scenarios...

There are 3 potential prices for bounce: 2.60, 2.50 and 2.30.

Resistance is @ 3.25...

The Night Before the Rate Hike

The night before the rate hike...

I slept with the price of gold @ 1151...

I told myself that the safest day to have a position in gold sector is this coming Monday, 19 December...

When I woke up the following day, I saw gold crashed down to 1130.13...

That's a $21 dollar drop...

I thought to myself, "Is that all the Fed rate hike can do to gold?"...

And so on Thursday, I forgot about the buying schedule I made...

And so I took my initial position both in $PX and $APX shares...

However, the low that I thought was final, started to move down again...1127.10...1125.84...1124.52...and finally settled @ 1122.64...

Meanwhile, numerous gold fans are now predicting gold going down below 1000...

And so I thought, "That's it! I think we already have the bottom. Those who formerly were so bullish about gold have now turned bearish."

I consider such change in sentiment positive. I took it as a "buy signal".

After such reflection, I check both the current chart of gold and the charts of my chosen stocks...

Here's the current gold chart...

As you can see, after three red candles, finally a green candle appeared...

Is this a head fake just like the previous candles above that chart?...

I think it is not...

The difference is that such candle appeared after the completion of corrective Waves A-B-C and a pull back, which I interpreted as the last one before the rally to Wave 1...

As for $PX and $APX, I selected only two timeframes, monthly and weekly...

Here's the monthly and weekly charts of $PX...

Both show that they are heading to Wave 5...

$PX's performance in fact from July to December was exceptional...

While most of the gains of gold this year has been erased and gold stocks' benchmarks in the US have retraced big such as the GLD, GDX, and HUI, $PX maintained its 97.95% year-to-date gain. That's really impressive!

As for $APX, it still has much to cover to cope up with $PX. Year-to-date, it managed to retain its 54.44% gain. Compared to $PX, that gain is still short approximately around 43%.

Here's $APX's charts...

Both also show that $APX is moving to Wave 5...

$ALTernative Chart

I was wrong...

It's difficult to swallow your pride...

If this is depression that I assume holders share with me and could be included in one of the indicators, $ALT now is definitely a buy...

I was wrong to treat the waves carelessly...

My bias perhaps interfered in my charting...

And I did a recounting...

This time I see $ALT differently...

Instead of looking forward into an upward trend, I now see a resumption of downtrend...

Again, I might be wrong the second time...

$IDC

$IDC...

Will it revisit 2.80 after six months?

If that is case, the stock will be forming a double bottom...

The stock may start all over again...

DXY's Final Wave and XAUUSD

DXY is now soaring...

It is now forming its final wave...

Wave 5 to be exact...

This is to validate the Fed's rate hike announcement...

Proving that the US economy is strong and will get stronger under the new administration...

And here's XAUUSD...

It is still struggling to find its low...

Experts say that both the strong USD and rate hike will cause the perfect bear storm for gold...

Soon we will see who is lying and who is telling the truth...

As for me, I see this as the final pull back before the rally.

I am expecting for the formation of Wave 1-1.

---0---0---0---

Here's a "conspi" story...

Something good and something big is coming to the gold sector if not by the end of the year, early next year...

I am referring to gold Shariah Law...

1.6B Moslems, 36% of world population will now have an opportunity to trade gold...

An anticipated $2 trillion will boost the demand for gold...

And that's why "they" are frightening you to flee this sector while they themselves are flocking into it...

$ALT Update

$ALT was moving nice the last four trading sessions. In my chart, I see the end of Wave 1 @ 2.89 and so I was expecting that the next move will be down to establish the low for Wave 2-1. However, I didn't expect that the retracement will be deep. $ALT revisited 2.39 this afternoon. Will this be the final low for Wave 2-1? Or am I mistaken in my interpretation and my counting? If $ALT will revisit 2.35 again and thereby will retrace 100%, I will repeat the whole process again; there will be a recounting. Perhaps for those who have advanced knowledge in Elliott Wave Theory could find an explanation for such anomaly.

Though technical analysts despise stories, I could not help myself but relate $ALT's movement with recent company disclosures. I am referring to the change in par value of $ALT's shares and the Php 400M loan by Mr. Navasero. The market hates uncertainty. It doesn't like these recent news. As a result, $ALT shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend.

Viewing PSEi from Three Time Frames

In trading stocks in PSE, it is very important for a trader to keep in mind the big picture. And that is the long-term direction of PSE.

Viewing the 30- year history of PSE in relation to Elliott Wave Theory, I can't understand why most "master traders" I stumble with in trading fora are all bullish. They claim to be guided by the same EWT. However, I am thinking that perhaps the difference is caused by a failure to look @ PSE from a longer time frame.

As for me, using the 30-year chart, I see that PSE has already completed the series of five impulse waves and is now in the corrective phase, Wave A-3 in particular.

From monthly time frame, you can see PSE differently. Beginning 2008 up to the present, PSE has already completed the entire market cycle, both the impulse waves (Waves 1 to 5) and the corrective waves (Waves A to C).

Many market analysts are aware of such market cycle and so they see PSE as preparing for another level of series of five uptrend impulse waves. It is popular to hear from them a forecast of PSE 10,000.

I have two major difficulties in accepting such forecast:

First, if it is really true that PSE is heading towards another level in bull cycle, how can we account of such run in view of the deteriorating global economy? We have been hearing a lot about the European banking crisis, liquidity crisis, the bond and the derivatives bubbles ($100T and $555T respectively), the destructive impact of ZIRP and NIRP, and the war on cash. Do these economic and monetary phenomena indicate a healthy world economy? Is Philippine economy really that exceptional to be immuned from such catasthropic events?

Second, how about the impact of the stronger USD on emerging markets? It has been reported by economists Claudio Borio and Hyun Song Shin that "the strong dollar could precipitate a wave of defaults on $9 trillion of dollar- denominated emerging markets corporate debt." If this is the case, how can you expect PSEi to continue soaring while businesses in emerging markets like the Philippine market are struggling to pay their debts?

With the above two considerations, I think looking at PSEi from a daily time frame shows us a more accurate direction of the PSE in the coming months.

Based on the above chart, PSE now is done with the series of corrective waves and is now reversing its trend and heading downward to complete Wave 5. We just don't know exactly the low of this wave. The important thing to bear in mind is that if this interpretation is correct, there is another huge downleg to complete this downtrend impulse series of waves.