Friday, December 16, 2016

The Night Before the Rate Hike

The night before the rate hike...

I slept with the price of gold @ 1151...

I told myself that the safest day to have a position in gold sector is this coming Monday, 19 December...

When I woke up the following day, I saw gold crashed down to 1130.13...

That's a $21 dollar drop...

I thought to myself, "Is that all the Fed rate hike can do to gold?"...

And so on Thursday, I forgot about the buying schedule I made...

And so I took my initial position both in $PX and $APX shares...

However, the low that I thought was final, started to move down again...1127.10...1125.84...1124.52...and finally settled @ 1122.64...

Meanwhile, numerous gold fans are now predicting gold going down below 1000...

And so I thought, "That's it! I think we already have the bottom. Those who formerly were so bullish about gold have now turned bearish."

I consider such change in sentiment positive. I took it as a "buy signal".

After such reflection, I check both the current chart of gold and the charts of my chosen stocks...

Here's the current gold chart...


As you can see, after three red candles, finally a green candle appeared...

Is this a head fake just like the previous candles above that chart?...

I think it is not...

The difference is that such candle appeared after the completion of corrective Waves A-B-C and a pull back, which I interpreted as the last one before the rally to Wave 1...

As for $PX and $APX, I selected only two timeframes, monthly and weekly...

Here's the monthly and weekly charts of $PX...



Both show that they are heading to Wave 5...

$PX's performance in fact from July to December was exceptional...

While most of the gains of gold this year has been erased and gold stocks' benchmarks in the US have retraced big such as the GLD, GDX, and HUI, $PX maintained its 97.95% year-to-date gain. That's really impressive!

As for $APX, it still has much to cover to cope up with $PX. Year-to-date, it managed to retain its 54.44% gain. Compared to $PX, that gain is still short approximately around 43%.

Here's $APX's charts...



Both also show that $APX is moving to Wave 5...


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